x402 Payability Observatory — week 2026-W41

How much of the x402 surface an agent can actually pay, and why the rest can't. Every endpoint Settled tracks is probed unpaid on the verb its listing declares and, when that fails, on the other verb; payees are checked on Base; a scout wallet pays a sample for real. Generated 2026-10-08 15:17 UTC · JSON · sample CSV (CC BY 4.0) · signed daily snapshot

55,339endpoints tracked

48,581payable (88.3% of probed)

1,525pay only on the other verb

298paid + delivered by the scout

2,824live hosts

$256,292USDC to indexed sellers, 7 days

Payability

Verdict	Endpoints	Meaning
`payable`	48,285	valid 402 quote on the verb that answers; nothing paid yet
`unreachable`	3,494	no HTTP answer
`cannot_pay_either_verb`	2,416	neither GET nor POST yields a 402 or a 2xx
`unknown`	339	not established yet
`delivered`	296	paid and delivered — a real payment came back with a real response
`malformed_402`	211	answers 402 but the quote is malformed
`free`	208	2xx without a paywall
`auth_gated`	78	401/403 before any payment
`unpriced`	12	valid 402 but no accept we can price

Scout (real payments)

310 payments this week, $2.35 spent. 301 came back with content (97.1%); 197 matched their listing and 3 did not. Every purchase, with its transaction. 2,187 payee addresses checked on Base; 169 had never been used.

Biggest live hosts

Host	Live	Payable
market.datapackvibe.com	8,545	10,430
monitor.intel.rallylive.ca	1,309	1,336
agentshelf.syntexa.ch	1,165	1,165
data.intel.rallylive.ca	1,108	1,135
dns.intel.rallylive.ca	1,054	1,055
intel.rallylive.ca	1,019	1,040
site.intel.rallylive.ca	1,017	1,058
ip.intel.rallylive.ca	978	1,067

The thread

x402 Payability Observatory · Oct 1–8

55,339 endpoints tracked, 55,000 probed unpaid (GET, then POST if needed):

• 48,581 payable (88.3% of probed) · +34,632 new · 5,664 went dark

Data (CC BY): settled.tools/observatory

2/ Why the rest can't be paid (every endpoint is tried on GET and POST before it is written off):

unreachable: 3,494
pays on neither verb: 2,416
malformed 402: 211
free (no paywall): 208
auth-gated: 78
unpriced: 12

3/ Scout: 310 real USDC payments this week, 301 delivered content (97.1%), 197 matched their listing, 3 did not, $2.35 spent. 298 endpoints carry a paid-and-delivered verdict.

Payees: 2,187 payTo addresses checked on Base, 169 never used (no balance, nonce or code).

4/ 2,824 live hosts · $256,292 USDC reached 1,341 seller wallets (ledger: Aug 27–Oct 8, 1,919 indexed sellers). The biggest hosts:
market.datapackvibe.com: 8,545 live, 10,430 payable
monitor.intel.rallylive.ca: 1,309 live, 1,336 payable

5/ Every verdict is EIP-191 signed and the whole index is snapshotted daily, hash-chained (verify at /v1/verify, /v1/snapshots).

Sample CSV: CC BY 4.0. Other measurers: publish your verdicts for the same sample and let's compare where we disagree — reply. Not financial advice.

Method and license

Liveness: an unpaid request with Accept: application/json on the declared verb, then the other verb if that one returned neither 402 nor 2xx; three consistent failures before a terminal status. Payability derives from the damped status plus the latest quote. Payee existence: USDC balance, nonce or code on Base via Multicall3. Delivery: one real payment by the scout wallet, judged on a 2xx with non-empty, non-error content. The sample CSV and this page are licensed CC BY 4.0; attribute "Settled (settled.tools)". Other measurers: publish your verdicts for the same sample and let's compare — reply on X or write in.

Data: Settled probes, sanctioned venue APIs and Base on-chain payout logs. Best-effort, not financial advice. Labels marked "suspected" can be disputed. Machine-readable: /v1/income/venues · llms.txt · openapi.json